Twins Talk with Twinkie Town part 2

In the second part of our email exchange, Twinkietown.com blogger Jesse Lund asked me some questions on the Rays, the AL East and what the post season might hold.

Twinkietown- Now that you’ve seen Jason Barlett and Matt Garza for a couple of seasons, how do you think they’v progressed and what do you see in their future?

Jason Bartlett was a key piece of the Rays World Series run in 2008 playing unbelievable defense. He posted career numbers last year (.320-14-66) and Rays fans thought he was poised to be a perennial All-Star. This year however he’s taken a big step backwards with his bat. He is batting 60 pounds under his career average, then again so are many Rays.
Garza has been an anchor in the young pitching staff the Rays have this season. Matt is only three wins away from having a career season regarding win totals. He is a rock solid pitcher who should be bumping up around 17-18 wins by seasons end. He reminds me of a young John Smoltz, having watched his career from the start with the Atlanta Braves.

Oh Carlos. Rays fans would be so happy if he could just hit for his career batting average, .244. Carlos is either red hot or ice cold this season. Carlos and Carl Crawford are both free agents at the end of the season. The Rays will not be able to keep either one. I think that if the Rays continue to slide and are 7-8 games back in the wildcard race by the end of the month, both players will be traded. If the Rays are in the hunt then both players will play out the season and then leave at the end of the season. Crawford is going to be the biggest loss.

I think the latest incident between Evan Longoria and BJ was the last straw for Joe Maddon. Upton’s attitude is wearing thin with a lot of Rays fans, especially me. After the weekend dugout brush up, Upton has not started, Super utility man Ben Zobrist has played center field. Upton is a tease. He’ll make an eye popping defensive play and then fail to run out a ground ball on his way to first on the next at bat. Upton’s contract is up after this season, and I fully expect the Rays to move forward without him. He is trade bait at the end of the month as well.

The Rays might make some changes in the roster but I believe it will come from within rather than trading for anyone. The Rays have a very deep farm system. I expect to see SP Jeremy Hellickson very soon if Wade Davis continues to struggle. Hellickson is ready for the bigs but has been unable to break into the Rays lineup, but I fully expect that to change perhaps right after the All-Star break. Hellickson is 10-2 2.35 ERA in 99 2/3IP with 101K’s. As far as bats go, another call up of Justin Ruggiano or Desmond Jennings would be in order. Jennings is believed to be the heir apparent to Carl Crawford when he departs.

I love Jeff Niemann. Rays fans would love to keep him under the radar but at 6′ 9″ that’s a task. Niemann is very consistent. In his last 10 starts, he has gone no fewer than 6 innings. He had a break out season last year, recording 13 wins and that success has carried over into this year. His ERA (2.72) ranks 4th in the AL as well as his winning percentage. He ranks third in AL WHIP at 1.07. Right handed hitters are only batting .204 against Jeff. Niemann has also benefited from great run support. In his last five wins the Rays have won by a combined score of 33-5.

Well, as much as I hate to say it, I think the Yankees will take the AL East. Early on in the year, Tampa was playing at such a blistering pace I felt that they actually were peaking as a team way too early and lately the wheels have started to fall off for Tampa. Toronto has fallen into it’s usual slump, they always seem to start strong right out of the gate and then simply fade away. Baltimore could get right back in the mix-just wanted to see if you’re paying attention! The wildcard in the East is the Boston Red Sox. They were 8.5 games back early on and have quietly moved into second place, 1 game ahead of the Rays. They are a banged up team right now. Offensively, they are hitting lights out right now 2nd in home runs with 105 and leading the majors with 418 RBI’s. The key to Boston is their pitching staff. They are near the bottom of the majors with a team ERA of 4.33. Buchholz and Lester are strong, Lackey has 9 wins and I fully expect the Red Sox to make a move for another starter as the trade deadline approaches. In order for the Rays to contend, they are going to have to start hitting the ball, something which has not a problem in the early going but as of late, The Rays have a .254 team BA and Tampa is leaving too many men on base, they have a horrible BA with RISP and they are going to need James Shields and Wade Davis to reverse their fortunes as of late. Shields has now lost 7 straight starts and has an ERA of over 7.00 in those starts. Davis has been equally as bad and as I mentioned previously, could be replaced in the rotation soon by Jeremy Hellickson.

Well, there is a lot of baseball left to be played and you never know which teams will get hot down the stretch and which ones the injury bug will hit. I think you can pencil the Yankees to be in the mix. I think the LA Angels will win out in the AL West, regardless of how hot the Rangers have been lately. Minnesota will win out in the Central. I think Detroit will fizzle out . I do have somewhat of a soft spot for the Twins as their spring training facility is just a few miles from my house so I do get a chance to follow them a lot. I think the wildcard race comes down to the Red Sox, White Sox and the Rays. Tampa wins out as the hitting returns.

Rays split with BoSox, next up-Twins. Twins talk with Twinkie Town

The Tampa Bay Rays managed to split the two game series with the Boston Red Sox with a 9-4 victory last night. Matt Garza pitched a strong game, recording his 9th victory of the season. Tampa Bay played some great defense and the offense managed 11 hits among them a double in the 8th from Carlos Pena which keyed a 6 run inning. Gotta love those crooked numbers in the box score.

Tonight will be the first game of a 4 game set with the Minnesota Twins at the new Target Field. The Rays are sending Jeff Niemann (6-2 2.72) to the mound.Niemann was strong in his last outing, surrendering only 1 earned run but he was pitching against Edwin Jackson of Arizona who managed a no hitter against the Rays. The Twins are starting Carl Pavano 9-6 (3.33). Pavano pitched a complete game win against the New York Mets in his last appearance.

Tampa Bay is heading into Minnesota to play the Twins starting tonight, so I took a look around the net to see who’s covering the Twins and I found a pretty complete Twins site, www.twinkietown.com, a site from the SB Nation. If you are a Twins fan or an AL Central fan, the site is a must visit. Twinkietown writer Jesse Lund and I exchanged a few questions about our teams, the upcoming series and how the rest of the season should shake out in the AL.

I submitted my questions to Jesse first.

Jesse:  The Tigers are a good team and the White Sox have some incredible pitching, so right now it looks like all three teams could still be relevant by the time September rolls around.  As things stand, the Twins aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently and the Sox aren’t as good, so I do expect the Twins to still win the division.  What happens in the next six or seven weeks as the trade deadlines come and go will play a big role in how things could turn out, but right now it’s a three-team race and nobody should really feel too comfortable with where they’re at.

Jesse: Blackburn concerns me the most out of the three guys you mention.  Slowey and Baker are good peripheral guys, they just haven’t pitched like they’re capable of pitching.  With Nick, he’s getting even fewer strikeouts than usual and he was already on the extreme lower end of the spectrum.  Additionally, his off-speed stuff is getting hit more this season and he really struggles to put hitters away if he falls behind in the count.  Don’t get me wrong, I still think the Twins need to go out and get Cliff Lee in the next couple of weeks, but I’m comfortable with four of the five guys even at this point.

Jesse: I’ve been cheering for Delmon since he arrived, so I can’t tell you how rewarding it is to see him turning a bit of a corner.  He’s still aggressive at the dish and strikes out a lot, but he’s taking better swings and I think a lot of it has to do with pitch recognition and understanding the game situation.  He’s on pace for more than 20 home runs and 100 RBI…and I know they’re just counting stats, but we need a right-handed run producer with Cuddyer slumping a bit this season.  Young has been great, and I’m happy to have him.

Jesse: It’s going to be a battle, I know that.  I love the Rays and I respect the way they’ve built their organization, and it doesn’t hurt that I’m constantly cheering against the Yankees and the Red Sawks.  There’s a lot of strong pitchers in that group, so my hope is that our own starters build on Slowey’s good outing yesterday and can keep the Rays offense in check.  Especially against Price and Shields, because those two can be absolutely sick.  Having said that, I am looking forward to watching Price throw.  I haven’t been able to watch him yet.

I expect a series split.

Jesse: Yanks, Twins and Rangers, with the Rays as the Wild Card.

Jesse:  I loved it in recent years, if only because the Twins dominated and it was a great way to pick up a few wins.  This year it was tough because we hit a skid.  In general I enjoy the rivalry games, like Minnesota-Milwaukee, but otherwise it doesn’t do anything for me and it creates a little schedule unbalance.  If they got rid of it, I’d be just fine.  Personally I’d just like to see it reduced, and to see each team in a division play the same opponents.

Rays Finally Back on the Road

The Tampa Bay Rays mercifully wrapped up a seven game homestand that saw the Rays go 2-5. A three game sweep by a team just starting to get hot and a series split with another who is 6 games under .500 at home. Cue the music.

James Shields was horrible on Sunday. He allowed 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings and allowed 7 earned runs. Sunday wasn’t just Carlos Pena toothbrush holder giveaway day, it resembled more like turn back the clock day and the clock was set on 2005. BTW, did anyone get me a toothbrush holder? See what Shields had to say after the loss here.

Manager Joe Maddon was surprisingly upbeat after the loss yesterday, perhaps he couldn’t wait until the game was over and had indulged in his latest Cabernet early on in the 6th inning. The one good thing you could bring away from this 4 game series is that the bats have started to come around. Yesterday saw the top three spots in the lineup go 7-14 combined. And those 3 batters accounted for driving in 80% of the runs the Rays scored yesterday.

Jason Bartlett is still day to day with a tweaked hamstring injury, but the Rays incredible depth is making up for Bartlett’s loss so far. Reid Brignac is filling in for Bartlett and hit .429 in the last 4 games.

Sunday was a game of mind blowing plays. For instance in the 6th in Evan Longoria hit a ball up the 1st base line fielded by White Sox firstbaseman Paul Konerko. Longo decided to slide to first base under the tag. Konerko touched Longoria with his golve and was called out by the first base umpire. Problem was, the ball wasn’t in Konerko’s golve, it was in his other hand, therefore Evan should have been called safe.

Later on in the game, B.J. Upton hit one deep to right center. The ball was inches from going out of the park. A fan reached over to catch the ball, the ball went off the fans glove and right into White Sox left fielder Juan Pierre’s glove. Upton was called out. Uh, what happened to fan interference?

So now it’s off to Toronto for three. The BlueJays are a very dangerous offensive team and are leading the majors in homeruns  currently. This is an especially meaningful three game series because Toronto of course is a division opponent trailing the Rays by just 4.5 games.

The Rays will send Matt Garza (5-3 2.97) to the bump tonight opposite Brandon Morrow (3-4 6.66) You’ve got to be weary of pitchers with the Antichrist ERA.

Rays manager Joe Maddon is always coming up with gimmicks for his players and always manages to come up with road trip travel themes, this week is no different. Click here to see what Maddon is up to this week.

Niemann Still Perfect 5-0

The Tampa Bay Rays put their three game losing streak behind them last night as the won the first game of a 4 game series against the Chicago White Sox 5-1. Jeff Niemann continued his strong pitching this year collecting his 5th win.

The lanky right hander has been solid this year for the Rays. Last night’s game was a snapshot of how the season has gone so far for Jeff. 8 innings, 1 earned run, 5 strikeouts and he continued to lower his ERA to 2.37 which is second lowest in the AL. Niemann has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this year and only took 94 pitches to record the win.

The Rays have a couple questions which they are in dire need of answers for.

Have you seen me? should be B.J. Uptons’ nickname. In Upton’s last 6 games, he’s had 15 plate appearances which have resulted in 7 strike outs and a .067 batting average. Upton sat out Thursday night’s game with manager Joe Maddon hoping the time off will help Upton’s bat. While B.J.’s defensive skills won’t keep him out of the lineup for long, but his batting average is creating a giant hole in the middle of the batting order.  Tampa will continue to hold out hope that Upton’s bat will get hot down the line, but he’s currently batting 50 points under his career average of .262.

The second problem facing the Rays will be what to do with C Kelly Shoppach when he comes off the DL. Shoppach was catching a few of the Rays starters at practice a few days ago and will begin his rehab assignment with the Port Charlotte Stone Crabs very soon. Shoppach went down very early on in the season with a knee injury and the Rays recalled John Jaso from Durham as a stop gap measure. The Rays management wasn’t prepared for the version the saw of Jaso in April. He’s been an offensive force with the bat. In 75 AB’s, he’s collected 24 hits, 4 doubles, 2 HR’s, driven in 18 runs and has drawn 16 walks while hitting for a .320 average.

I’ve thought all along that Jaso could possibly replace Navarro as the full-time catcher, and might possibly do that next year as Navy’s contract is up at the finish of this year. The club will most likely designate Shoppach for assignment and hope he clears waivers for a spot in AAA Durham as an emergency catcher for the Rays.

Upton remains the biggest mystery though. It is a long season and one would hope that he can pick up his batting average a bit though as the season continues because in order to make a serious run into the 2010 playoffs, they will need a consistent bat in the middle of the order.

Small bump, then back on track

So much for my visions of a complete 3 series 10 game sweep for the Rays. Was I delusional after Boston? No. I was realistic, this team is just that good.

On Easter week, the temperatures touched near 80 degrees around the Chicago area, and tonight, it was just as cold as it was last Friday when the Rays administered the Boston beatdown. 38 degrees at the first pitch. What’s up with that?

Last night the Rays appeared shell shocked and I could tell by the end of the third inning they were going to be in for a long night. Tonight was another story though.

Wade Davis took the mound tonight for the good guys, and as the #5 starter, he’s already drawn some miserable matchups this season, tonight going against the White Sox Ace, Mark Buehrle. The promising young hurler didn’t fail to deliver, by striking out 6, and giving up 2 hits and no earned runs in 6 innings pitched. Rays pitching overall only surrendered 4 hits the entire game.

Chicago’s Buehrle on the other hand, made 85 pitches in 4.2 innings, gave up 9 hits and 6 earned runs. The Rays however didn’t discriminate as they lit up the White Sox pitching staff for 12 runs, on 13 hits. The 12 runs scored tonight is the most ever scored by the Rays on a White Sox team and the second largest shutout victory in team history.

 

Yes, I understand the game was in Chicago tonight, but did the mob put out a contract on every infielder the Rays have? White Sox 1B, Paul Konerko single handedly tried to wipe out the Rays infield. First by stepping on Sean Rodriguez’s hand in an attempt to get back to first base. Rodriguez never left the game, and in fact later hit a home run and was only a triple away from hitting for the cycle tonight. Then later in the game, Konerko hit Evan Longoria in the back of the head in an attempt to turn a double play.

Thursday’s matchup features Tampa’s James Shields going up against Chicago’s Jake Peavy. On Friday, the Rays return to the friendly confines of the Trop and take on the Toronto Blue Jays. If Tampa beats Chicago tomorrow, they will have achieved the most successful road trip in team history, going 9-1 in 10 games.

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